The U.S. Department of Defense's 2025 China Military Report, released on December 23, has stirred up quite a bit of controversy. The report points out that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a historic military expansion, making it increasingly difficult for the United States to handle. According to the report, the PLA is aiming for strategic parity with the U.S. by 2027, particularly in nuclear weapons and other domains, and plans to achieve a strategic victory in Taiwan. U.S. media outlets such as *National Interest* and *Defense News*, which often hype up the China threat, did not go overboard this time. Instead, they provided a realistic analysis, noting that while the PLA's strength is growing, it is not invincible. However, if conflict between China and the U.S. were to break out, it would be a global disaster. The report highlights that the PLA's nuclear arsenal is large and growing, with capabilities in naval power, long-range strikes, cyber warfare, and space operations that could directly target U.S. vulnerabilities. For example, the Volt Typhoon U.S. military operations in a conflict. While the PLA’s modernization is progressing quickly, it still lacks extensive combat experience, with its last large-scale battle being the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. In comparison, the U.S. military has gained practical experience from conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. According to the RAND Corporation's 2015 report, the U.S. would likely have the upper hand in short-term conflicts, but China would have a significant advantage in a prolonged war. In summary, while the PLA is not as powerful as some might claim, a conflict would quickly deplete U.S. ammunition and expose its industrial weaknesses, making it hard for the U.S. to keep up with the pace of war.

This report, which spans 100 pages (half the length of last year's), lacks a table of contents and even uses the Department of Defense's own letterhead, indicating it was rushed. Many sections are simply copied from earlier versions, with notable contradictions. For example, the report states that U.S.-China military relations have returned to their best level in years, with the U.S. aiming to expand communication channels and promote strategic stability and conflict resolution. At the same time, it warns about China’s military expansion threatening U.S. homeland security, presenting a logical contradiction. U.S. media such as *National Interest* have pointed out that the U.S. Air Force currently operates 2,070 aircraft, with only 60% of them ready for missions, down from 4,800 aircraft in the Cold War with an 80% readiness rate. The number of flying hours per pilot has dropped from 200 to 130 hours, and the training intensity has weakened. Similarly, the U.S. Navy, which built 20 destroyers annually during the Cold War, now struggles to produce 8 per year, and its ships quickly retire after service, unable to withstand high-intensity use. Many U.S. military assets are based on outdated models from the 1970s, and new equipment cannot replace them fast enough. In contrast, while the PLA Navy boasts more ships than the U.S. Navy, there is still a gap in terms of quality and operational experience. China’s shipbuilding is rapid, with the frequent launch of the 055-class destroyers. However, U.S. media caution against exaggerating China’s military capabilities, noting that China’s strategy is defensive, with overseas bases limited to one in Djibouti, and signs of a naval facility in Cambodia. These bases are primarily for anti-piracy or peacekeeping missions, not for global military expansion.

The report also emphasizes the PLA's steady progress toward its 2027 objectives, including achieving a strategic victory in Taiwan. Possible strategies include coercion without war, joint fire strikes, maritime and air blockades, and joint landings. These were tested in 2024 exercises, with strike ranges of 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles, potentially challenging the U.S. military's presence in the Asia-Pacific. However, U.S. media such as *Defense Monthly* quoted the Assistant Secretary of the Navy as saying that while the U.S. Navy remains globally dominant, China is closing the gap, requiring the U.S. to enhance its shipbuilding capacity to maintain its advantage. The report acknowledges that China’s nuclear forces could disrupt U.S. readiness, but China’s overall military expansion leaves U.S. homeland vulnerabilities exposed. U.S. media analysis suggests that China’s military is not as strong as it is often portrayed, and that the U.S. should not exaggerate the threat to justify defense spending. Despite the U.S. military’s budget representing more than half of the global total, it is not at the top in terms of capabilities, which indicates that the U.S. may not be spending its money wisely. Russia is considered a more serious threat by the U.S. military, with China being just one of several challenges. U.S. media suggest that continued military spending is unbalanced, not only affecting U.S.-China relations but also weakening the U.S. military itself.

The report also raises concerns over the growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. It mentions that in 2024, the PLA conducted multiple exercises to test key operational elements, such as attacking both maritime and land targets, and blockading ports. U.S. media reports that the Pentagon simulated a Taiwan Strait conflict in which the U.S. suffered heavy losses, including the rapid sinking of a Ford-class aircraft carrier and the destruction of numerous fighter jets. A secret report revealed that the early stages of the conflict could result in disastrous setbacks for the U.S. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense responded by saying they would strengthen their preparations, but U.S. media warns that any escalation would have global consequences. In July 2025, China urged the EU not to provoke tensions in the South China Sea, and the Philippine Embassy advised Manila not to rely on external forces. China’s stance remains firm but not expansionist. Russian state television quoted U.S. intelligence officers as saying the U.S. military could defeat China, but the PLA is still a formidable force. *The Washington Post* updated that China is taking a stronger stance in U.S.-China trade talks. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Trump’s actions in the early part of his second term heightened Beijing’s vigilance, increasing risks. U.S. media such as *Foreign Affairs* commented that China’s defense industry is growing, and defense spending is soaring, but under economic challenges, China’s military is not invincible. U.S. military commanders predict a potential large-scale conflict by 2025, with four major bases surrounding China. Experts argue that the PLA is not to be underestimated. U.S. media advises the U.S. not to panic, noting that China’s military strength is formidable but restrained, making it a significant deterrent. Some reports claim the PLA has a three-step strategy for invading Taiwan, which the Taiwan Affairs Office responded to. A U.S. military report on Taiwan Strait intervention concludes it would be disastrous. The 2024 cyber operations showed China’s ability to penetrate U.S. infrastructure and disrupt military operations. U.S. media warns that China should not retaliate, yet once again, the narrative is that conflict is inevitable. If conflict breaks out, it could spell disaster for China, as U.S. sensors track every move of China’s nuclear submarines. The idea of war being inevitable is questioned by U.S. media analysts, pointing out that while China’s coastal nuclear submarines would inevitably pass through U.S. sensor-equipped straits, the situation remains difficult.

The report concludes by suggesting that the U.S. should prioritize strengthening its deterrence in the Indo-Pacific through power rather than confrontation. U.S. media like *The Way to Rule* disagree with this obsession with military force, advocating for a wise diplomatic approach to avoid war. After all, a conflict with China would be a catastrophe for all parties involved. Global military spending amounts to $2.46 trillion, with East Asia under increasing pressure, while South America remains stable. Think tanks maintain that China’s military is not globalized, and the consequences of direct confrontation would be severe. The U.S. has yet to release its 2025 report, which leaves the events of September 3 in limbo. After the military parade, U.S. media urges restraint, as China’s roll-on/roll-off ship capacity is impressive, but the U.S. military calculates that its landing ship capacity is insufficient and relies on civilian ships. U.S. media warns that both China and the U.S. are preparing for a major war, but who will win? The lesson of the Soviet Union’s ammunition reserves teaches that prolonged wars do not necessarily lead to nuclear conflict. Using nuclear weapons is devastating, and mutual destruction concerns may prevent the use of nuclear weapons. Understanding the evolution of great power conflicts is crucial. China’s Foreign Minister has said that the consequences of a China-U.S. conflict would be catastrophic. U.S. military discussions on the dangers of Chinese military operations in the South China Sea are rising. U.S. media continues to exaggerate the strength of the PLA, further straining relations and pressuring to curb China’s development. While the U.S. claims to be a military superpower, China, as the world’s second-largest economy, has a strong military, making a peaceful resolution of relations more pressing. U.S. media misguides the authorities, repeatedly requesting military funding. The U.S. military’s budget represents half of global spending, but its military capabilities rank lower. The money spent has not improved capabilities. The U.S. spends trillions to maintain bases and buy weapons, with an air force of 2,070 aircraft and a Navy of fewer than 300 ships. Russia remains the true adversary, and U.S. attempts to